Analysis: Ratification - July, Accession - October
Dear friends, As you have observed from last year's media reports in Japan that I've previously circulated, the Japanese government's initial plan was to ratify by July 2007. The logic behind this was that the Japanese Diet is having its upper house elections starting end of this June and that all political activity would be concentrated there during that period. In order to avoid losing the political momentum for ratification, the government has to gain approval of the ratification bill BEFORE the upper house elections begin. No other political activities can take place but only bureaucratic paperwork during that time. Thus, our conclusion is that the scheduled date of ratification (depositing the instruments) still remains at July 2007, and that the instruments will take effect on October, thereby acknowledging Japan as an additional state party to the Rome Statute. Nikkei's report was based on a press conference held by the Prime Minister himself, who, like all national leaders of the world, has been pre-briefed by the MoFA (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) officials on what to say. Our understanding of Nikkei's report is that the Prime Minister himself did not clearly understand the MoFA lecture and that he simply brought out the word "October" because that was the keyword in the MoFA lecture that he could remember which seemed significant. And of course, Nikkei didn't double-check on this (I checked on them and their reply was that all facts are in the article--sounds more like a govt statement). This analysis also supports the initial assessment we made on the quarter-priced budget that was approved last December. If Japan is to ratify in July and eventually accede on October 1st, the quarter-priced budget of USD 6 million is exactly the amount needed to pay up for the remaining three months of the year starting October. So our final conclusion based on these observations is that Japan's ratification will take place during July and that Japan will be joining the Court on 1st of October 2007. I personally suspect that Japan will choose either July 1st or July 17th for its historical significance. If I'm right, either way the UN as well as the Coalition will have to throw us some kind of a party to celebrate this special occasion coinciding with a special date (just kidding) :-)
